Mood
Syrians remain deeply negative about the situation in the country, but perspectives on the country’s direction, current situation, and likely outcomes of the conflict varied according to political views.
- Many, mainly regime opponents, noted worsening conditions in the past year, primarily due to the rise of ISIS as well as regime gains.
- Regime supporters, however, reported improved conditions and increased stability as the army “kills terrorists” and regains control over some areas. Some pointed to the summer’s elections and gains made by the army as evidence of Assad’s legitimacy as president.
- Many regime opponents look to the armed opposition (principally the Free Syrian Army) to remove Assad and restore peace and order in Syria. Some, however, fear increased fighting among rebel groups.
The local mood varies with the intensity of conflict and extremist forces. Calm Tartous is positive; in Damascus pro-regime residents cited greater stability due to regime gains; Hamah and Homs residents worry about continued fighting; extremist presence and factional conflict have darkened the mood in Deir al-Zor and Al-Hasakah; and Raqqah residents live in terror under ISIS.
Both regime supporters and opponents were resentful of foreign interference in the conflict, which they perceived as threatening the territorial integrity of the country.
Service provision is largely a function of territorial control.
- Government supporters and some opponents said the state is providing electricity, food, media, and water in their areas.
- Aleppo respondents, though regime opponents, noted less fighting and improved services in areas where the regime has regained control.
- In Raqqah, ISIS has a poor record of providing basic services, arbitrarily cutting electricity and monopolizing food and water supplies.
- Kurds credited Kurdish rebels and parties, including the Kurdish Red Cross, with providing services.
Respondents split on whether they can speak freely with people of different political or religious views about the conflict.
- Regime supporters in particular tended to say they spoke freely; so did respondents living in refugee camps outside the country, who were confident that few regime supporters were nearby.
- Others were unwilling to do so, saying too little trust exists between people and little good would come from debates.
- A few were very afraid to speak their minds, especially Christians and residents of Raqqah, where not one respondent would speak to those of different views.
Potential Outcomes
Positions of most on both pro- and anti- regime sides have hardened against anything other than a fight until a victor emerges, due to the atrocities and suffering they have experienced. Fears that this will lead to deadly vengeance was voiced, primarily by refugees. Most respondents did not favor a negotiated national political settlement and compromises to end the war. This is a dramatic shift in views on such Geneva-type negotiations since our study