22 Risk perception and communication
Definition of technical risk
Risk is formally defined as the product of the frequency by the consequence of a hazard. A hazard is an event that could lead to a loss or harm. Risk assessment is a means of analyzing complex systems for hazards but necessarily adapts as new technological systems emerge. Risk assessments evaluate hazards and ensuing, potential risk by addressing the following three questions [1] –
- What can go wrong?
- How likely will it happen?
- What are the consequences?
Risk assessment tools often model multi-variate systems in an effort to characterize risk to a singular parameter or value that will facilitate comparisons. Often, risk assessment must assess characteristics which need to be considered simultaneously.When used early in system lifecycle, a preliminary risk assessment can offer design changes can be made to reduce risk or eliminate hazards altogether.
Perception of risk
However, technical approaches of risk really are not applicable when introducing new technologies to the public. The perception of risk will affect judgments and public opinion [2-4]. Over any population, the perception of risk will differ due to demographics, psychological traits, value orientations, and levels of knowledge [2].
Even though risk involves defining the frequency of a hazard; quite frankly, people really just are not going to be thinking about the frequency of hazards; i.e, probability neglect [5]. People then will perceive the risk of high consequence, low consequence events to be higher than the technical risk. Perception of risk among the public is largely derived from consequences associated with the technology. There may also be perceived benefits that will affect the level of acceptable risk. However, there likely will not be a such a straightforward correspondence, and most definitely, both the factors affecting perceived risks and potential benefits will vary widely across and within each community. Strong feelings of anxiety, dread, or nervousness typically result in a perception of high risk [6]. Part of this, could be a general lack of knowledge or lack of access to understanding a particular technology, as well as the degree of individual control; e.g., driving versus flying [2]. A key factor, therefore, is transparency and developing trust in experts to effectively communicate with the public.
Affect heuristic
The affect heuristic is critical in understanding risk perception. People will draw upon their affective reaction to assess their own level of risk or benefit [6]. The affect heuristic is more complex than just a feeling [7]. Many factors could contribute to a positive or negative affect for an individual; e.g., perceived knowledge, resistence to change, effects on friends and family. For example, building a new nuclear reactor could be viewed more beneficial due to creation of new jobs or negatively because there could be more traffic.
Non nuclear
New technologies carry a higher