7.2 Sample Surveys
7.2: Sample Surveys
7.2.1: The Literary Digest Poll
Incorrect polling techniques used during the 1936 presidential election led to the demise of the popular magazine, The Literary Digest.
Learning Objective
Critique the problems with the techniques used by the Literary Digest Poll
Key Takeaways
Key Points
- As it had done in 1920, 1924, 1928 and 1932, The Literary Digest conducted a straw poll regarding the likely outcome of the 1936 presidential election. Before 1936, it had always correctly predicted the winner. It predicted Landon would beat Roosevelt.
- In November, Landon carried only Vermont and Maine; President F. D. Roosevelt carried the 46 other states. Landon’s electoral vote total of eight is a tie for the record low for a major-party nominee since the American political paradigm of the Democratic and Republican parties began in the 1850s.
- The polling techniques used were to blame, even though they polled 10 million people and got a response from 2.4 million.They polled mostly their readers, who had more money than the typical American during the Great Depression. Higher income people were more likely to vote Republican.
- Subsequent statistical analysis and studies have shown it is not necessary to poll ten million people when conducting a scientific survey. A much lower number, such as 1,500 persons, is adequate in most cases so long as they are appropriately chosen.
- This debacle led to a considerable refinement of public opinion polling techniques and later came to be regarded as ushering in the era of modern scientific public opinion research.
Key Terms
- bellwether
- anything that indicates future trends
- straw poll
- a survey of opinion which is unofficial, casual, or ad hoc
The Literary Digest
The Literary Digest was an influential general interest weekly magazine published by Funk & Wagnalls. Founded by Isaac Kaufmann Funk in 1890, it eventually merged with two similar weekly magazines, Public Opinion and Current Opinion.
The Literary Digest
Cover of the February 19, 1921 edition of The Literary Digest.
History
Beginning with early issues, the emphasis of The Literary Digest was on opinion articles and an analysis of news events. Established as a weekly news magazine, it offered condensations of articles from American, Canadian, and European publications. Type-only covers gave way to illustrated covers during the early 1900s. After Isaac Funk’s death in 1912, Robert Joseph Cuddihy became the editor. In the 1920s, the covers carried full-color reproductions of famous paintings . By 1927, The Literary Digest climbed to a circulation of over one million. Covers of the final issues displayed various photographic and photo-montage techniques. In 1938, it merged with the Review of Reviews, only to fail soon after. Its subscriber list was bought by Time.
Presidential Poll
The Literary Digest is best-remembered today for the circumstances surrounding its demise. As it had done in 1920, 1924, 1928 and 1932, it co