Module 2: Transition Risks
SSP Storylines
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways – or SSPs – are storylines that describe alternate socioeconomic scenarios for how the future could unfold. They include potential trajectories of population and economic growth along with greenhouse gas emissions. Each SSP describes if and how a certain representative concentration pathway (RCP) could be achieved, given the socioeconomic characteristics and policy assumptions of the future it represents. Some SSPs are incompatible with more ambitious global warming limits of 1.5C and 2.0C.
Here are brief definitions of each of the five shared socioeconomic pathways, reproduced from The IIASA SSP Database Supplementary note for the SSP data sets.(Login required: See link under Readings and Resources)
SSP Storylines
SSP1 – Sustainability: This is a world making relatively good progress towards sustainability, with sustained efforts to achieve development goals, while reducing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency. Elements that contribute to this are a rapid development of low-income countries, a reduction of inequality (globally and within economies), rapid technology development, and a high level of awareness regarding environmental degradation. Rapid economic growth in low-income countries reduces the number of people below the poverty line. The world is characterized by an open, globalized economy, with relatively rapid technological change directed toward environmentally friendly processes, including clean energy technologies and yield-enhancing technologies for land. Consumption is oriented towards low material growth and energy intensity, with a relatively low level of consumption of animal products. Investments in high levels of education coincide with low population growth. Concurrently, governance and institutions facilitate achieving development goals and problem solving. The Millennium Development Goals are achieved within the next decade or two, resulting in educated populations with access to safe water, improved sanitation and medical care. Other factors that reduce vulnerability to climate and other global changes include, for example, the successful implementation of stringent policies to control air pollutants and rapid shifts toward universal access to clean and modern energy in the developing world.
SSP 2 – Middle of the Road (or Dynamics as Usual, or Current Trends Continue, or Continuation, or Muddling Through): In this world, trends typical of recent decades continue, with some progress towards achieving development goals, reductions in resource and energy intensity at historic rates, and slowly decreasing fossil fuel dependency. Development of low-income countries proceeds unevenly, with some countries making relatively good progress while others are left behind. Most economies are politically stable with partially functioning and globally connected markets. A limited number of comparatively weak global institutions exist. Per-capita income leve