Chapter 8 Statistics
8.1 Gathering and Organizing Data
Learning Objectives
By the end of this section, you will be able to:
- Distinguish among sampling techniques
- Organize data using an appropriate method
- Create frequency distributions
When a polling organization wants to try to establish which candidate will win an upcoming election, the first steps are to write questions for the survey and to choose which people will be asked to respond to the survey. These can seem like simple steps, but they have far-reaching implications in the analysis the pollsters will later carry out. The process by which samples (or groups of units from which we collect data) are chosen can strongly affect the data that are collected. Units are anything that can be measured or surveyed (such as people, animals, objectives, or experiments), and data are observations made on units.
One of the most famous failures of good sampling occurred in the first half of the twentieth century. The Literary Digest was among the most respected magazines of the early twentieth century. Despite the name, the Digest was a weekly newsmagazine. Starting in 1916, the Digest conducted a poll to try to predict the winner of each US presidential election. For the most part, their results were good; they correctly predicted the outcome of all five elections between 1916 and 1932. In 1936, the incumbent president Franklin Delano Roosevelt faced Kansas governor Alf Landon, and once again the Digest ran their famous poll, with results published the week before the election. Their conclusion? Landon would win in a landslide, 57% to 43%. Once the actual votes had been counted, though, Roosevelt ended up with 61% of the popular vote, 18% more than the poll predicted. What went wrong?
The short answer is that the people who were chosen to receive the survey (over ten million of them!) were not a good representation of the population of voting adults. The sample was chosen using the Digest’s own base of subscribers as well as publicly available lists of people who were likely adults (and therefore eligible to vote), mostly phone books and vehicle registration records. The pollsters then mailed every single person on these lists a survey. Around a quarter of those surveys were returned; this constituted the sample that was used to make the Digest’s disastrously incorrect prediction. However, the Digest made an error in failing to consider that the election was happening during the Great Depression, and only the wealthy had disposable income to spend on telephone lines, automobiles, and magazine subscriptions. Thus, only the wealthy were sent the Digest’s survey. Since Roosevelt was extremely popular among poorer voters, many of Roosevelt’s supporters were excluded from the Digest’s sample.
Another more complicated factor was the low response rate; only around 25% of the surveys were returned. This created what’s called a nonresponse bias.
Sampling and Gathering Data
The Digest’s failure highlights t